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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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